James Gakuya Would Beat Babu Owino in Nairobi Governor’s Race if Polls Were Held Today, New Survey
- Embakasi North MP James Gakuya surged ahead in Nairobi’s 2027 governor race, polling at 40.2% in a new survey by Politrack Africa
- Babu Owino trails Gakuya by just 5.1 points, setting the stage for a polarised, head-to-head battle between two Embakasi titans
- Agnes Kagure’s surprise third-place showing puts her ahead of Governor Johnson Sakaja, whose support has dropped to just 7.1%
- With only 2.1% of voters undecided, analysts say the race is hardening, leaving little room for trailing candidates to recover
Search option is now available at TUKO! Feel free to search the content on topics/people you enjoy reading about in the top right corner ;)
Didacus Malowa, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and current affairs in Kenya.
Embakasi North MP James Gakuya has emerged as the frontrunner in Nairobi’s gubernatorial race, according to a new opinion poll by Politrack Africa.
Source: UGC
Who is likely to become Nairobi governor?
If elections were held today, Gakuya would beat Embakasi East MP Babu Owino in a highly polarised two-man contest that now defines the capital's political battleground.
Search option is now available at TUKO! Feel free to search the content on topics/people you enjoy reading about in the top right corner ;)
The survey, conducted among respondents across Nairobi, shows Gakuya commanding a decisive lead with 40.2% support, crossing the politically significant 40% threshold.
This often signals frontrunner momentum as his closest rival, Babu Owino, is not far behind at 35.1%, trailing by 5.1% points.
While both candidates enjoy strong grassroots bases, the poll reflects a sharp divide in voter preferences, with the majority of Nairobians already leaning firmly toward one of the two.
The narrow margin points to a potential face-off that could evolve into a fierce head-to-head battle should the race consolidate further.
"James Gakuya commands a strong majority at 40.2%, establishing a clear lead and crossing the critical 40% threshold," explained the survey.
In a notable development, businesswoman Agnes Kagure has overtaken both incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja and former Kenya International Convention Centre (KICC) board chairman Irungu Nyakera to rank third in the poll.
Kagure has garnered 9.2% support, signalling her growing presence in the city’s political conversation.
Her performance places her ahead of Sakaja, who has fallen to 7.1%, and Nyakera at 5.4%.
Kagure’s unexpected showing adds a new layer to the race, but the distance from the top two suggests she could emerge as a kingmaker or coalition builder in future alignments.
"Gakuya’s breakthrough past 40% redefines the race as a two-candidate contest. His lead reflects consolidated support in a streamlined field, while Kagure’s unexpected strength positions her as a potential coalition builder," suggested the survey.
What are Sakaja's chances in the 2027 polls?
The poll also reveals a strikingly low number of undecided voters, at just 2.0%, suggesting that voter preferences in Nairobi have largely crystallised.
"Undecided voters shrink to 2.1%, signalling resolved voter intent," continued the survey.
With the contest narrowing into two clear camps, Gakuya’s and Owino’s, the remaining candidates are facing increasingly limited room to grow.
Sakaja’s sharp drop in popularity is especially significant as it's just three years into his first term as governor and the numbers appear to reflect growing dissatisfaction with his administration’s performance.
Once considered a central figure in Nairobi politics, he now finds himself lagging behind newcomers and veterans alike.
Source: Facebook
Similarly, Nyakera, who once generated interest as a technocratic alternative, seems unable to translate that buzz into significant electoral support.
His 5.4% share places him at the bottom of the pack, highlighting the challenges facing candidates outside traditional political networks.
The race now enters a critical phase, with pressure mounting on third-tier candidates to either grow their base or make strategic alliances.
Can Babu Owino win Nairobi gubernatorial election?
As reported earlier, Lang’ata MP Jalang’o backed Babu to win Nairobi’s governorship in 2027, arguing he had the popularity to unseat incumbent, especially if the two avoid splitting their ODM support base.
Jalang’o warned that a divided vote could hand victory to a candidate backed by Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP party.
He stressed that tribal alliances still dominate Kenyan politics and urged honest talks between Babu and Sakaja.
Jalang’o believes Babu’s influence, even without the ODM ticket, makes him a major contender and potential presidential hopeful by 2032.
Proofreading by Asher Omondi, copy editor at TUKO.co.ke.
Source: TUKO.co.ke
